[…]
Après la hausse de 10 % des prix du gaz au 1er juillet, ceux de l’électricité risquent aussi de subir une poussée de fièvre. Mardi, le régulateur doit annoncer une légère hausse des prix, inférieure à 1 %, pour le 1er août prochain. Mais la prochaine révision, prévue pour le 1er février 2022 inquiète déjà le gouvernement. Les prix sur le marché de l’électricité ont, eux aussi, flambé de 40 % pour atteindre 74 €/MWh, dans le sillage de ceux du pétrole et du prix du carbone.
L’inquiétude est d’autant plus forte que les prix devraient rester sur cette tendance haussière. Certains analystes estiment même qu’ils pourraient augmenter jusqu’à 100 €/MWh à la fin de l’année. Or, c’est précisément le mois de décembre qui sert de référence dans le calcul des prix qui sera décidé en janvier prochain et appliqué au 1er février 2022.
À date, les spécialistes estiment que l’impact sur les prix serait compris entre 7 % et 8 %. En prenant en compte la fin d’un rattrapage de 1,8 % facturé en 2021, les tarifs augmenteraient tout de même de 5 % à 6 % en 2022 par rapport à cette année.
[…]
[…] La « contribution au service public de l’énergie », dite CSPE, pèse sur un tiers de la facture des ménages. Elle finance essentiellement les subventions pour les éoliennes et panneaux solaires. Or, l’augmentation des prix de marché va permettre à l’État de débourser moins d’aides pour les opérateurs d’énergies renouvelables. Déjà, cette année, la CSPE devrait coûter 5 milliards d’euros contre 7 milliards l’an passé. « L’État pourrait rendre une partie de cette économie budgétaire aux consommateurs en abaissant cette taxe » décrypte une source proche.
La seconde option est technique et a déjà été introduite dans la loi sur l’énergie en 2019. Elle consiste à augmenter la quantité d’électricité qu’EDF peut vendre à ses concurrents (Total, Engie…) à prix bas de 42 euros/MWh, soit 40 % de moins que les prix actuels de marché. « Cela permettrait de baisser la tension sur le marché de l’électricité et de faire baisser les prix » veut croire un bon connaisseur du dossier. […] L’effort semble inévitable pour éviter une telle hausse de prix. Reste à savoir s’il sera porté par l’État ou par EDF.
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