Les marchés boursiers pourraient bien poursuivre leur marche en avant puisque l’inflation américaine était en baisse dans la hausse. En effet le taux d’inflation a diminué de 8,2 % sur un an en septembre à 7,7 % en octobre, ce qui est le plus bas niveau depuis janvier 2022 et constitue une bonne nouvelle évidemment.
Pourquoi ?
Parce que si l’inflation commence enfin à décélérer cela veut dire que la FED va cesser d’augmenter les taux d’intérêt de manière aussi importante pour revenir à des taux plus proportionnés.
La seconde bonne nouvelle vient de Chine et les investisseurs saluent le raccourcissement de la durée de la quarantaine imposée aux voyageurs arrivant de l’étranger dans l’Empire du milieu, avec une quarantaine qui passe à 8 jours, contre 10 auparavant.
Je ne suis pas certain que ces deux nouvelles « durent » dans le temps. En effet, passer de 10 à 8 jours de quarantaine ne change rien pour le moment à la politique 0 Covid qui est mortifère pour l’économie chinoise et pour la population chinoise.
Je ne suis pas plus certain, que l’inflation décélère de façon définitive.
Je m’explique, l’inflation devrait naturellement baisser hors nouveau choc, mais elle ne va pas redevenir ce qu’elle était c’est-à-dire proche de 0. Nous devrions au contraire connaître une inflation structurelle de l’ordre de 5 % par an bien loin de la cible de 2% des banques centrales, liée à la transition énergétique et à la démondialisation.
Charles SANNAT
Source Investir.fr ici
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